Startuplet financial model, updated userbase model
October 24, 2008 – 3:06 pmThanks to DenisM pointing out that the userbase model I’ve presented in the last post constantly underestimates your userbase.
Glad that someone read that deep 
Basically the models counts only for users that came only during current month and considers churn rate to be a 100%.
This is easily fixable by addiing an extra parameter “churn rate” and accumulating the users:
The model shows that with the same startuplet as in the previous example and churn rate of 30% we actually can get a positive 12-month NPV with just weekly blog posts each reaching slightly more than 3′300 readers.
Previous posts on this topic:
- Startuplet financial model, users
- Startuplet financial model, revenues
- Startuplet financial model, expenses
2 Responses to “Startuplet financial model, updated userbase model”
Well, your business looks a whole lot better now! You have to blog half as much, reach one third as many people to remain on the same schedule to +ve NPV. And you still come out way ahead at month 23.
If anything this model tells that customer loyalty super important - lower churn yeilds drastically better result.
One useful iteration on this model I plan to make for myself is to count all users for virality, but only new users for revenue. This model is applicable when you sell something rather than rely on AdSense.
By Denis on Oct 31, 2008
@Denis
Yes, that would be interesting case. Please, share it when ready.
By Andrey Khavryuchenko on Oct 31, 2008